Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

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• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• North_America
• Asia
• South_America

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Djibouti
  • South Africa
  • Equatorial Guinea
  • Congo (Kinshasa)
  • Mauritania
  • Egypt
  • Algeria
  • Gabon
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Burkina Faso
  • Uganda
  • Senegal

Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Djibouti⮸

Population $988,000$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,557$ on 2020-06-18

Best fit exponential: \(205 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.6\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,065.8}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 78.3)}}\) (asimptote \(7,065.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $43$ on 2020-06-18

Best fit exponential: \(1.03 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{55.5}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 56.7)}}\) (asimptote \(55.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $987$ on 2020-06-18

South Africa⮸

Population $59,308,690$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $83,890$ on 2020-06-18

Best fit exponential: \(506 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(12.8\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{693,552.0}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 129.4)}}\) (asimptote \(693,552.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,737$ on 2020-06-18

Best fit exponential: \(23.8 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,723.9}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 88.9)}}\) (asimptote \(5,723.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $37,233$ on 2020-06-18

Equatorial Guinea⮸

Population $1,402,985$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,664$ on 2020-06-18

Best fit exponential: \(75.8 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.2\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,580.7}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 62.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,580.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $32$ on 2020-06-18

Best fit exponential: \(1.93 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(16.2\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,117$ on 2020-06-18

Congo (Kinshasa)⮸

Population $5,518,087$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,283$ on 2020-06-18

Best fit exponential: \(119 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,464.8}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 79.3)}}\) (asimptote \(7,464.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $117$ on 2020-06-18

Best fit exponential: \(10.3 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{262.8}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 97.7)}}\) (asimptote \(262.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,481$ on 2020-06-18

Mauritania⮸

Population $4,649,658$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,424$ on 2020-06-18

Best fit exponential: \(1.67 \times 10^{0.038t}\) (doubling rate \(7.9\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,419.8}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 82.0)}}\) (asimptote \(4,419.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $97$ on 2020-06-18

Best fit exponential: \(0.143 \times 10^{0.036t}\) (doubling rate \(8.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{115.7}{1 + 10^{-0.075 (t - 70.8)}}\) (asimptote \(115.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,777$ on 2020-06-18

Egypt⮸

Population $102,334,404$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $50,437$ on 2020-06-18

Best fit exponential: \(673 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{142,209.3}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 107.4)}}\) (asimptote \(142,209.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,938$ on 2020-06-18

Best fit exponential: \(82.6 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.9\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{96,031.0}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 201.0)}}\) (asimptote \(96,031.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $34,971$ on 2020-06-18

Algeria⮸

Population $43,851,044$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $11,385$ on 2020-06-18

Best fit exponential: \(1.19 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,419.1}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 59.4)}}\) (asimptote \(12,419.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $811$ on 2020-06-18

Best fit exponential: \(162 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.7\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{742.3}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 38.7)}}\) (asimptote \(742.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,496$ on 2020-06-18

Gabon⮸

Population $2,225,734$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,340$ on 2020-06-18

Best fit exponential: \(97.6 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(16.2\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,447.0}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 68.9)}}\) (asimptote \(4,447.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $32$ on 2020-06-18

Best fit exponential: \(0.996 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{43.7}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 80.5)}}\) (asimptote \(43.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,651$ on 2020-06-18

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Burkina Faso recovered 89%
Djibouti recovered 59%
Uganda recovered 53%
Senegal recovered 8%

Burkina Faso⮸

Population $20,903,273$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $899$ on 2020-06-18

Best fit exponential: \(322 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(53.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{875.3}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 25.0)}}\) (asimptote \(875.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $53$ on 2020-06-18

Best fit exponential: \(21.9 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(56.7\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{52.9}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 21.8)}}\) (asimptote \(52.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $36$ on 2020-06-18

Uganda⮸

Population $45,741,007$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $741$ on 2020-06-18

Best fit exponential: \(28.2 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.6\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,354.8}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 71.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,354.8\))

Uganda doesn't yet have 4.5741 dead per thousand.

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $255$ on 2020-06-18

Senegal⮸

Population $16,743,927$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,475$ on 2020-06-18

Best fit exponential: \(229 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.2\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,302.9}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 72.1)}}\) (asimptote \(6,302.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $76$ on 2020-06-18

Best fit exponential: \(4.26 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{96.8}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 62.3)}}\) (asimptote \(96.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,683$ on 2020-06-18